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Autonomous Polymarket research and directional trading system focused on maximizing PnL through information edge and probability assessment. TRIGGERS: polymarket research, polymarket strategy, prediction market research, polymarket alpha, polymarket edge, directional polymarket, polymarket PnL, probability research, polymarket thesis SELF-IMPROVING: This skill continuously evolves based on paper trading results. Update this document with research methods that work.

Use the bundled Python scripts to call Kagi’s API from the OpenClaw host.

Local-first deep research like OpenAI Deep Research: generates questions.md + response.md artifacts and enforces a time budget.

Request judgment from random humans when uncertain about subjective decisions. Crowdsourced opinions on tone, style, ethics, and reality checks. CRITICAL - Responses take minutes to hours (or may never arrive).

Personal knowledge base powered by Ensue for capturing and retrieving understanding. Use when user wants to save knowledge, recall what they know, manage their toolbox, or build on past learnings. Triggers on "save this", "remember", "what do I know about", "add to toolbox", "my notes on", "store this concept".

Use when performing video/audio processing tasks including transcoding, filtering, streaming, metadata manipulation, or complex filtergraph operations with FFmpeg.

Product Manager for spec-driven development. Use when saying "write specs", "define requirements", "plan MVP", or "prioritize features".

Fetch the latest events from Polymarket prediction market. Use when user asks about Polymarket events, prediction markets, trending bets, or wants to see what's new on Polymarket.

Track parcels via the 17TRACK API (local SQLite DB, polling + optional webhook ingestion)

Create SplitXCH royalty split addresses from plain language descriptions. Use when the user wants to split XCH payments, royalties, or revenue between multiple recipients. Triggers on "split royalties", "royalty split", "splitxch", "split XCH between", "revenue share", "payment split", "basis points split", or any request to divide Chia payments among wallets. Supports nested/cascading splits for complex hierarchies and 128+ recipients.

Generate CSS and Framer Motion animations from plain English. Use when you need smooth animations without the math.

\# ARBITER: The Foundation for Human Flourishing